Ever since the financial crisis began, my initial expectation of myself and others was that we would react by turning away from free market ideology -- a realization that unregulated free markets had failed us and that we needed to look for something else.
But it hasn't happened. Having read extensively about what went wrong, and been exposed to the massive complexity of these systems, I am more concerned than ever that government would try to manage such a system. Whatever job they try to do, I am convinced that it would be a worse job.
I am now more, not less, appreciative of free markets because I think I have a better understanding of them, having been forced by curiosity to investigate how they work.
And I think I sense it happening in others. I think that, ultimately, this will force conservatives to go back to their roots of small government and more purely free markets. In the long run, I think this will be good for them. I think they will distance themselves from
neo-con policies and return to a more purely conservative model of fiscally-responsible and smaller, simplified government.
In Canada, we have a problem. Our only conservative option has increased the size of government, is overspending, and is not acting according to his stated principles. Unfortunately for him, his stated principles would have played well in the current environment, but they are now publicly irretrievable. Their main alternative -- the Liberal party -- seems to have no idea what they are doing, but would probably err on the side of big government and overspending. These are not Chretien's Liberals, who talked a big Liberal game but acted like fiscal conservatives (if a government is going to lie, this is my preferred lie).
In the US, Obama is setting the stage for a conservative rejuvenation by overspending and
over-regulating. This gets tiresome very quickly for a country that preserves a spark of can-do individualism. With Bush, the Republicans hit the proverbial rock bottom (even though Obama didn't manage much more than 50% of the popular vote -- quite far from Mulroney's 2-seat
wipeout in Canada in the 90s) and will be forced to figure out what they're going to be about in the years ahead. This can only be positive in the long-run.
Despite my own predictions about my own reaction, I am enthusiastic about the idea of Tim
Hudak as the leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives. I have a sense that he will be clear about what he wants to accomplish and that he will accomplish a lot of what he sets out to accomplish. I have seen him debate on a number of occasions and he is very partisan but also very clear and he leaves you with the impression that you know where he stands. That is rare in the current environment. He is being tarnished with the anti-Harris brush by the media, but Harris was elected to two majority governments, the first of which followed an economic situation similar to the current one, and which followed a
government whose politics were as murky as the current government's are. I wasn't of age to vote when Harris got his first majority, and I wasn't a citizen with voting privileges when he got his second, but if this is what he was fighting against then I can appreciate why he was elected.
And, in the recent parliamentary elections in Europe, many socialists governments were reduced in size. And this wasn't just a flip-flop from the incumbent to the largest alternative due to sour circumstance: as
The Economist notes, "The pattern of misery for the left was powerful enough to trump the adage that deep recessions punish governments in office." Britain even elected a couple of openly-racist members of the British National Party. Interestingly, the
BNP also advocates things like local economies, reduction of foreign oil dependence, and the use of the military to protect home soil rather than waging war in foreign countries in addition to deporting people of non-British origin. And they seem to be far more serious about it than the more mainstream parties.
But I suppose all we know for certain is that things won't stay the same.
Labels: Canada, conservatism, EU