To encourage people to take the short-term lockdown seriously, a significant number of people have been put into a panic about the virus. To be sure, it is to be taken seriously, but perhaps not this seriously as long as you are following the rules of social distancing.
The people who are dying in Canada from COVID-19 are dying during a lockdown with many precautions in place, and with full access to ICUs and ventilators. They are not dying because of unavailable critical care. There is no shortage of ICUs and ventilators because of actions taken so far to divert resources to deal with the epidemic - in fact there is a significant excess.
This is good news, but it's only good news for a short period of time. At some point, it begins to look like a misallocation of resources during a time of economic collapse.
So, once we are confident in our ability to consistently help those that can be helped, excess resources need to be reallocated where they will be more likely to save lives. Such as resuming cancer consultations, pre-emptive surgeries, and similar things that have been put deprioritized and put on hold. Putting people back to work is also effective medicine where the unemployed condition involves over-eating, alcohol or drug abuse, depression, and other grotty things that fall under the banner of "idle hands syndrome".
Without a vaccine and/or some other anti-viral therapy that is discovered to improve survival rates, that percentage of susceptible people would still die with or without a lockdown. But without a lockdown, or with a relaxed lockdown, it's now going to be seen by some as the government's fault to some extent if lockdowns are relaxed and people suffer, as they inevitably will.
Unless seasonal weather changes things. Hopefully, but hopefully not - because, if true, then come June it becomes the southern hemisphere's turn to deal with this.
We don't know if you become immune after you've caught it once, and if we suspect that you are then we don't know for how long... but hopes pinned on a vaccine are high.
We don't have the means to know broadly whether someone has already caught it and acquired some immunity.
But, it sounds like mutation of this particular type of virus is a red herring as far as vaccination goes.
Like many others, I can see a way that life gradually returns to normal by gradual easing of the lockdown. I don't know how businesses that were marginally surviving at full capacity would survive at half-capacity. Live events and restaurants that normally need to fill 90% of seats may not survive filling 50% of seats. Airlines won't. Transit won't. But it's better than nothing and perhaps government programs can compensate in part where they are currently compensating in full, which is still a net benefit. At some point it has to end in full because we can't afford to do otherwise, and this is independent of whether or not there is a vaccine.
Even with all sensible measures in place, this doesn't stop a certain % of susceptible people from meeting an early death as restrictions are relaxed, nor does it help governments that have taken full responsibility for the lockdown absolve themselves in the public eye of responsibility for outcomes.
To be clear, I would not hold the government responsible because (a) I don't see any of this as the government's fault and (b) I see relaxing the lockdown as soon as possible as an absolute necessity and accept that mistakes will be made. If that's evil then it is a necessary evil. But that's just me and people that think like me. Click-bait media (most mainstream media) would hold them accountable; political opponents would; and undoubtedly would reddit. Even if those factions didn't believe the government was responsible in their heart, they would still blame and provide encouragement to those looking for a scapegoat.
Here's one communication point that would set the stage: start emphasizing now that the goal is not to prevent everyone from being afflicted by COVID-19, but to ensure that we have all necessary resources available to assist when someone does catch it and needs attention. That has always been the goal, but it is not at all clear.
Proof? Grocery workers, transit workers, and nurses refusing work or agitating over work that they believe mean "it's only a matter of time" until they acquire COVID-19. Well, it's only a matter of time until all of us catch it.
The concern about kids catching this ("...and she has 2 kids at home!") seems particularly misplaced. I'm sure someone has a link they can send me of one child that has died from it. That is beside the point, but it's also part of the irrational hysteria that cohabits with the rational hysteria around COVID-19.
The people I have most affinity toward during these times are those special epidemiologists who say that we can't just be listening to medical professionals on this issue. These people are out there. Medical professionals are not elected and have no accountability to keep society functioning. Nor do the media. Scientists go where their scientific specialty leads them and the media are starved for revenue, with attention being a proxy for revenue. Both have had an overweight say in public policy on this issue until now. Medical professionals very clearly have valuable advice to impart, but we also need the equivalent of "engineers" that are going to put that scientific knowledge to effective use (and I mean real engineers - not software ones).
And with the production pipeline shut down this year, there will be very few new Hollywood movies next year.
Dark skies ahead, but hopefully warmer weather.
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