While politicians regain control of the COVID-19 narrative, a void...

Like a lot of people, I'm confused by the apparent lack of a roadmap for COVID-19 recovery in society. Newspapers float a lot of ideas, but it's increasingly hard to tell which have serious intent behind them and which are just the napkin scribblings of career jockeys that find the notion of recovering through methodical, nose-to-the-grind diligence and hard work increasingly boring and tedious.

At first I perceived this to be an issue with our leaders and a lack of planning or vision. After all, most leaders simply look at what other people are doing and copy it within their own fiefdom. And there's no-one to copy in this situation. But, lately, I'm becoming convinced that this recent void is intentional.

I think what we are seeing is a weeks-long transition from a strategy led by medical advice based on data, testing, and targets, focused solely on virus case management, to one that is led by politicians who are accountable for the longer-term health of the economy of which all other goods (including the healthcare system) depend.

I think it has become increasingly apparent that we can't afford to have the recovery led solely by medical advice. It seemed prudent at the beginning when there was so little information about how the virus would spread, but it's now emerging that their concerns are very solitary and, really, the models were overly pessimistic. This mirrors the public's own reaction - very cautious at the beginning, but increasingly relaxed as they see no or very little impact within their sphere and are emboldened by each inconsequential, tentative step outside The Village.

What we are doing in lockdown isn't "scientific". It's likely good advice, and the advice comes from scientists, but it's not science because it has never been tried before, there are too many variables, and there is a strong cultural component to outcomes. There's no "if you do X then Y will happen". It's a hypothesis that we can't afford to complete controlled tests on at the scale required. Scientists aren't elected, and they don't have to consider the broad variety of concerns that politicians do, yet politicians are the ones that will take fire when the results take too long to materialize.

So, I think what we may be seeing is a void while the deckchairs are reorganized and the politicians regain control of the narrative. I don't think it's a coincidence that we are seeing exposés in the international media of politicians that didn't follow their own advice. Months ago they'd have been expected to resign, but now they are defended. They're just like everyone else, wanting to get on with their lives. Soon, I think we'll start seeing things that go against the medical advice given out weeks ago. We can't afford to follow it. And hopefully people will forget what that advice was... and as long as new cases don't start to surge in any significant way, they will.

This is the way it should be.